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HURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUL 23 2002
 
DOUGLAS IS GOING THROUGH A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE THIS EVENING. 
THE DOMINANT OUTER EYEWALL INDICATED IN AMSU/TRMM DATA WAS ABOUT 75
NM WIDE EARLIER TODAY...WHILE THE RAGGED OPEN REMAINS OF THE INNER
EYEWALL STILL GENERATES A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN 77 KT...77 KT...AND
90 KT RESPECTIVELY...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 80 KT.  TH
HURRICANE REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER... IT IS MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND THUS
SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13.  DOUGLAS IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...WITH LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATING
THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD
MOVE DOUGLAS ALONG A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN AFTER 24 HR.  THIS IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 19.0N 117.8W    80 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 19.6N 119.9W    75 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 20.2N 122.6W    65 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 20.5N 125.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     27/0000Z 20.5N 133.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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