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HURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUL 23 2002
 
THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING DURING THE DAY AS THE HURRICANE 
APPROACHES A MORE STABLE AIR AND A COOLER OCEAN.  BECAUSE T-NUMBERS 
ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED 
TO 80 KNOTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND DOUGLAS COULD BE A 
DISSIPATING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...ABOUT 12 KNOTS...AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A WELL ESTABLISHED AND PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS
INDICATED BY GUIDANCE.  THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 18.4N 116.3W    80 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W    75 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 19.5N 121.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 20.0N 124.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N 132.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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