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HURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 22 2002
 
DOUGLAS SHOWS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH CLOUD TOPS TO
-80C THIS EVENING.  AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 22/1712Z SHOWED A SMALL
EYE...WHICH HAS OCCASIONALLY APPEARED IN VISIBLE/IR IMAGERY SINCE
THAT TIME.  ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT CURRENTLY SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA
ARE 90 KT.  THUS...90 KT REMAINS THE MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE
MODELS INDICATE DOUGLAS IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AROUND SUCH A MOTION...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS
BEING THE FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT
A TOUCH SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DOUGLAS IS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW FOR 72 HR.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED THE EDGE OF
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE FORECAST TRACK TAKE IT
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER.  DOUGLAS SHOULD BEGIN STEADILY
WEAKENING AFTER 12-24 HR AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. 
ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT THE HURRICANE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE
TONIGHT WHILE THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 17.4N 113.8W    90 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 17.7N 115.2W    90 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 18.5N 117.3W    90 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 19.3N 120.0W    80 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 19.9N 122.6W    65 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N 127.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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