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HURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 22 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/8.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72
HOURS WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 90 KN0TS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES.
THE SHIPS MODEL AND OTHERS SHOW THE WIND SPEED PEAKING IN THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
MODEL TREND AND BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 95 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS COLDER SSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ENCOUNTERED.
 
THE SHIP UGTY REPORTED 40 KNOTS AT 18Z ABOUT 210 N MI EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER AND THE 34-KNOT WIND SPEED RADIUS WAS ADJUSTED TO THIS
REPORT.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 17.3N 113.2W    90 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 114.7W    95 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 18.4N 116.9W    95 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 19.2N 119.5W    85 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 19.7N 122.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 20.5N 127.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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