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HURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUL 22 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8 OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE 
PAST 12 HOUR MOTION IS 280/8.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY 
CLUSTERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO AND 
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 85 KN0TS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES.  
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS 101 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL 
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL TREND AND BRINGS THE 
WIND SPEED TO 95 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS.  COLDER SSTS SHOULD BE 
ENCOUNTERED NY DOUGLASS WITHIN 36-48 HOURS RESULTING IN WEAKENING.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 17.3N 112.5W    85 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 17.7N 113.8W    90 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.2N 115.8W    95 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 18.8N 118.2W    90 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 19.3N 120.9W    75 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 20.0N 125.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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