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HURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUL 22 2002
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8 OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE
PAST 12 HOUR MOTION IS 280/8. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO AND
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 85 KN0TS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES.
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS 101 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL TREND AND BRINGS THE
WIND SPEED TO 95 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS. COLDER SSTS SHOULD BE
ENCOUNTERED NY DOUGLASS WITHIN 36-48 HOURS RESULTING IN WEAKENING.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/1500Z 17.3N 112.5W 85 KTS
12HR VT 23/0000Z 17.7N 113.8W 90 KTS
24HR VT 23/1200Z 18.2N 115.8W 95 KTS
36HR VT 24/0000Z 18.8N 118.2W 90 KTS
48HR VT 24/1200Z 19.3N 120.9W 75 KTS
72HR VT 25/1200Z 20.0N 125.0W 50 KTS
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