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HURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUL 22 2002
 
DOUGLAS HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY.  THE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING 
EPISODE OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS HAS COINCIDED WITH A LEFT
TURN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AN EVENT WHICH HAS BEEN OBSERVED MANY
TIMES IN THE PAST.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A RATHER SYMMETRIC SYSTEM
AND THE ESTIMATED CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A CLOSED EYEWALL STRUCTURE.  THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFGWC.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN IN A WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR...ORDER 5 KT...ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO THE MAIN FACTOR FOR DOUGLAS' FUTURE INTENSITY SHOULD BE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS SHOULD NOT BE
ENCOUNTERED UNTIL 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MORE
WEAKENING IN THE LATTER PART THAN INDICATED BY THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...WHICH I THINK KEEPS DOUGLAS TOO STRONG FOR SUB 25 DEG C
WATERS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/8.  THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THIS
FORECAST TRACK IS AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  DOUGLAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE STEERED ON A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST HEADING BY THE
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA...GFDL/U.K.
MET/NOGAPS/AVN...CONSENSUS TRACK.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0900Z 17.3N 111.5W    80 KTS
12HR VT     22/1800Z 17.7N 112.7W    90 KTS
24HR VT     23/0600Z 18.0N 114.5W    90 KTS
36HR VT     23/1800Z 18.4N 116.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     24/0600Z 18.8N 118.7W    65 KTS
72HR VT     25/0600Z 19.5N 123.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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