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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUL 21 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS
UNANIMOUSLY SHOW A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT
72 HOURS...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES LIKEWISE.
 
BANDING FEATURES ARE IMPRESSIVE AND THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE IS 65 
KNOTS WHILE SAB AND KGWC ARE 55 KNOTS.  LATEST QUIKSCAT AND SSMI 
SUGGEST THAT DOUGLAS IS NOT A HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL INITIAL WIND 
SPEED IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS.  THE AGGRESSIVE GFDL BRINGS THE WIND 
TO 104 KNOTS WHILE SHIPS HIGHEST WIND IS 77 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS.  
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT.  THE FGS...UKMET... 
AND SHIPS MODEL FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL.

WIND SPEED RADII ARE INCREASED A LITTLE IN ALL QUADRANTS BASED ON 
QUIKSCAT DATA...THEN FORECAST TO BECOME SYMMETRIC IN 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 16.8N 109.9W    60 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 17.5N 111.2W    75 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 17.7N 112.8W    75 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.8N 114.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 116.1W    75 KTS
72HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 119.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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