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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN JUL 21 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/9.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS
UNANIMOUSLY TURN AND MOVE THE STORM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
72 HOURS...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES LIKEWISE AND IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
 
A RATHER COLD CDO AND BANDING FEATURES ARE SEEN ON GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGES.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KNOTS FROM TAFB...SAB... 
AND KGWC.  THE INITIAL OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS. 
 THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED.  THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS FORECAST 
LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED FOR 72 HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS 
THE WIND SPEED TO 76 KNOTS IN 60 HOURS WITH LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR AND 
WARM ENOUGH SSTS.  THE GFDL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH 97 KNOTS IN 
42 HOURS.  SSTS SHOULD START GETTING COOLER BY 72 HOURS ON THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS 
THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 16.4N 108.6W    55 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W    65 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 17.4N 111.2W    75 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 17.5N 112.8W    75 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 17.7N 114.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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