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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUL 20 2002
 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE
CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT APPEARS TO BE BETTER EMBEDDED IN
THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF DOUGLAS IN
LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS MORE SYMMETRIC THAN EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC
ARE 45...45...AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL 
QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/7...TO THE RIGHT OF THE EARLIER
TRACK...AND A HOT-OFF-THE-PRESS SSMI PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE TRACK
MIGHT BE EVEN MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN THIS ADVISORY INDICATES.  OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS...A TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE HAS SWUNG AROUND
DOUGLAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...THERE MAY BE SOME INTERACTION OR MUTUAL ROTATION OF THESE TWO
SYSTEMS.  NEARLY ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS A WNW OR NW TRACK IN THE
SHORT TERM...WITH A BEND BACK TO THE LEFT AFTER 24 OR 36 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD THE RIDGE WESTWARD FROM
BAJA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP DOUGLAS ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN THE AVN...AND IS ALSO TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE GFDL IS IN LOVE WITH DOUGLAS...BRINGING IT TO 111 KT IN TWO DAYS 
TIME.  THE STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL IS ALSO BULLISH...TAKING DOUGLAS 
UP TO 80 KT...WHILE THE AVN IS A BEAR...SHOWING ESSENTIALLY NO 
CHANGE.  THESE MODELS DID SIMILAR THINGS WITH CRISTINA...WHICH DID 
NOT INTENSIFY MUCH.  HOWEVER...DOUGLAS SEEMS TO BE BETTER ORGANIZED 
INTERNALLY THAN CRISTINA WAS AT THIS STAGE...AND SO I AM INCLINED TO 
FAVOR SHIPS.  THE SHEAR SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND THE WATER IS WARM.  
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT 
IS STILL A BIT BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0300Z 14.5N 107.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     21/1200Z 15.3N 108.2W    55 KTS
24HR VT     22/0000Z 16.2N 109.8W    65 KTS
36HR VT     22/1200Z 16.7N 111.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     23/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     24/0000Z 17.5N 116.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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