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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUL 20 2002
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45...40...AND 30 KNOTS
RESPECTIVELY FROM SAB...TAFB..AND AFGWC. A 13Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED
LOTS OF RAIN CONTAMINATED 35 KNOT SURFACE WINDS SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. AN AMSU ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS WAS ALSO
RECEIVED. THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A 35 KNOT TROPICAL STORM ON
THE BASIS OF THE ABOVE DATA. THE CENTER IS NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTING THAT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
CONTINUES. THE GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH THE GFDL SHOWING DISSIPATION
IN 12 HOURS AND SHIFOR REACHING NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A FORECAST TO
60 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.
THE WIND RADII ARE LARGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT PASS BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SYMMETRIC IN 24 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6. GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DOUGLAS AND A MOSTLY SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION FOR 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT SLOWER.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 13.7N 107.2W 35 KTS
12HR VT 21/0600Z 14.0N 108.0W 45 KTS
24HR VT 21/1800Z 14.5N 109.2W 55 KTS
36HR VT 22/0600Z 15.1N 110.5W 60 KTS
48HR VT 22/1800Z 15.5N 112.0W 60 KTS
72HR VT 23/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W 60 KTS
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