HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 20 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS
NOW CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E...VERY NEAR TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH
THE AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES BUT IT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.  AS MOST OF THE
SYSTEMS IN THE EPAC THIS YEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...CAUSING THE OUTFLOW TO BE RESTRICTED.  THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND THE OCEAN IS WARM SO...A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR COOL WATER AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT AND THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/1500Z 13.3N 107.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 14.0N 109.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     21/1200Z 14.7N 111.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     22/0000Z 15.5N 113.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     22/1200Z 16.0N 115.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     23/1200Z 16.5N 118.0W    60 KTS
 
 
NNNN