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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 15 2002
WHILE CRISTINA IS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION...IT STILL REMAINS
AN IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION. A 15/1352Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED 25
TO 30 KT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE. ALSO...A COUPLE OF
EXPERIMENTAL AMSU SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES TODAY INDICATE THE
SURFACE PRESSURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...FURTHER SUGGESTING THAT THE
WARM-CORE STRUCTURE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ARE PROBABLY NOT
DECREASING THAT QUICKLY. AS SUCH...THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 30 KT
WAS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
CRISTINA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE WEAKENING
CIRCULATION GETS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. MOST OF
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS TREND AND THE AVN AND UKMET
MODELS EVEN TAKE THE DISSIPATING CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 36
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE AVN SOLUTION.
FOR SUCH A PRETTY NAME...CRISTINA HAS BEEN AN UGLY STORM...AT LEAST
AS FAR AS INTENSITY FORECASTING GOES. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SUB-23C SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...RAPID
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SEEMS TO BE A SURE BET...FINALLY!
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/2100Z 19.4N 120.3W 30 KTS
12HR VT 16/0600Z 20.0N 121.7W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 16/1800Z 20.1N 123.8W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 17/0600Z 19.6N 126.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 17/1800Z 18.6N 128.3W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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