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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUL 15 2002
 
CHRISTINA REMAINS A SWIRL OF LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO DEEP 
CONVECTION. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL 35 KT OR 
LESS. AS SUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 30 KT 
FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH MAKES CRISTINA A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10. CRISTINA IS MOVING OVER MUCH 
COOLER WATER SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST. AS SUCH...THE 
PRIMARY STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES WITHIN 24 
HOURS...UNLESS NEW CONVECTION REDEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THE LATTER 
SCENARIO SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE COOLER SSTS 
AND THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM 
AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS WERE 
CLOSELY FOLLOWED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF 
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 24 HOURS.
 
SINCE CHRISTINA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER... THE 
CURRENT RAPID WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1500Z 19.1N 119.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 20.1N 121.1W    25 KTS
24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.5N 123.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     17/0000Z 20.2N 125.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N 127.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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