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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUL 15 2002
 
CHRISTINA IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO CONVECTION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BASED ON DVORAK RULES...ARE NOW 45
KT...35 KT...AND 30 KT FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.
THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE CENTER IS A LITTLE HARD TO LOCATE...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6.  THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN MULTISPECTRAL
IR IMAGERY THAT IT MAY BE MOVING FASTER.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES
THAT THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO
AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE BAMM AND BAMS.

CHRISTINA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER.  THE CURRENT
WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 18.3N 119.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.1N 119.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.1N 121.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 123.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N 126.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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