HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUL 14 2002

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTINA HAS PRACTICALLY 
DISAPPEARED.  LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE SYSTEM STILL 
HAD A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD CENTER.  ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE IS 45 KT...WITH THE LACK OF CONVECTION WINDS OF THIS 
STRENGTH MAY NOT BE REACHING THE SURFACE.  THE STORM IS CURRENTLY 
CROSSING OVER A SIGNIFICANT SST GRADIENT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS.

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN 
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  HOWEVER AS THE CYCLONE IS REDUCED TO A 
SHALLOW CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IT IS LIKELY TO BE 
DOMINATED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO 
WESTWARD.  THE TRACK ON THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 17.8N 118.1W    45 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.6N 118.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.2N 120.1W    35 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 19.6N 121.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     17/0000Z 19.7N 123.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     18/0000Z 19.7N 127.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN