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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUL 14 2002
THE LOCATION UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN ELIMINATED NOW THAT A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCUALTION HAS APPEARED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. NOW ONLY THE INTENSITY IS IN QUESTION!
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL INDICATE THAT CRISTINA HAS
WEAKENED SINCE GOING THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE BURSTING PERIOD 6 HOURS
AGO. I HAVE HELD THE INTENSITY UP JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE 35
TO 45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES DUE TO THE TIGHT CURL SEEN IN
THE LOW-CLOUD BANDS NEAR THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST HAS WRAPPED INTO THE
CENTER AND AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH HAS HELPED TO
ERODE THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/07. OTHER THAN THE RE-ADJUSTMENT
OF THE INITIAL POSITION A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST...CRISTINA
REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE CONSENSUS OF THE REGIONAL AND
DYNAMICAL MODELS CALLS FOR A NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS AND
THEN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND
GETS STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AVN AND THE AVN 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MODELS.
CRISTINA WILL STEADILY WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...UNLESS
DEEP CONVECTION REFORMS OVER THE CENTER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAPID
WEAKENING AND PERHAPS EVEN DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 17.3N 118.0W 50 KTS
12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.2N 118.7W 50 KTS
24HR VT 15/1800Z 19.0N 120.1W 45 KTS
36HR VT 16/0600Z 19.4N 121.8W 35 KTS
48HR VT 16/1800Z 19.6N 123.0W 30 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 17/1800Z 19.6N 127.0W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
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