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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUL 13 2002
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTINA LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT.  THE
CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE CONVECTION AND THERE IS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE
OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ELONGATED TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE STILL 45 KNOTS.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGES SHOW THAT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND COOL WATERS ARE ABOUT A
DAY AWAY.  SO INTENSIFICATION...IF AT ALL...SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 6 KNOTS THROUGH 
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST 
SHOULD BEGIN SOON WITH A TURN MORE TOWARD WEST BEYOND 36 HOURS AS 
THE STORM WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS 
TRACK HAS BEEN THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS DURING THE 
PAST FEW DAYS AND HAS BEEN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 16.1N 117.5W    45 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 18.3N 119.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     16/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 124.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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