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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 13 2002
 
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 06Z WERE UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS VALUES.
HOWEVER...SSMI OVERPASSES AT 0334Z AND 0511Z SHOWED SOME RELATIVELY
TIGHT BANDING SUGGESTIVE OF AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...AND IN THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO THE APPEARANCE OF CRISTINA ON INFRARED IMAGERY HAS
IMPROVED AS WELL...WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER
FOR THE FIRST TIME...AND AN OVERALL INCREASE IN BANDING STRUCTURE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 45 KT...AND THE LONG-
AWAITED STRENGTHENING MAY NOW BE OCCURRING.  HOWEVER...CRISTINA HAS
LESS THAN 36 HOURS OF WARM WATER AHEAD OF IT.

CRISTINA EDGED MOSTLY NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT 
THIS MAY BE REORGANIZATION AS MUCH AS TRUE MOTION.  THE INITIAL 
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/4 FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE GUIDANCE 
REMAINS SPLIT...WITH THE GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS SHOWING A MOSTLY 
NORTHWARD TRACK...AND THE AVN AND BAMS A WNW TRACK.  THE AVN 
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INTERACTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH LOBES OF 
VORTICITY IN ITS NEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND I NOTE THAT 24 HOURS AGO THE 
AVN WAS FORECASTING A SIMILAR BUT NORTHWARD JOG FOR THIS TIME THAT 
APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING 
DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPART 
SOME SOUTHERLY STEERING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH LIES CLOSER 
TO THE AVN THAN TO THE GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS CLUSTER...IS SHIFTED A BIT 
NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT MOTION/RELOCATION...BUT IS 
OTHERWISE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0900Z 14.6N 116.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N 116.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 118.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     15/0600Z 19.0N 120.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N 123.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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