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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUL 12 2002
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTINA CONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED
AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED.
MOST OF THE WEATHER IS LOCATED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE STORM. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AT
BEST. CRISTINA HAS NOT RESPONDED SO FAR TO THE APPARENT LIGHT SHEAR
AND WARM OCEAN AND WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR THE STRENGTHENING
INDICATED IN PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
ONCE AGAIN...CRISTINA HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO FORCE CRISTINA
SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...MOST OF
THE SOPHISTICATED DYNAMICAL MODELS AND DERIVATIVES PREDICT THAT
CRISTINA WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH THROUGH A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE. ONLY CLIMATOLOGY KEEPS THE STORM SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
BEYOND 72 HOURS..CRISTINA IS EXPECETED TO BE WEAKENING OVER COOL
WATERS MOVING WESTWARD AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 14.0N 116.3W 40 KTS
12HR VT 13/1200Z 14.0N 117.0W 45 KTS
24HR VT 14/0000Z 15.0N 118.0W 55 KTS
36HR VT 14/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W 60 KTS
48HR VT 15/0000Z 18.5N 120.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 16/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W 40 KTS
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