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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUL 12 2002
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW CRISTINA IN A BETTER LIGHT THAN
IR IMAGERY DID DURING THE NIGHT.  WHILE THE CENTER IS NEAR OR
UNDER THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...THE CIRCULATION IS SIGNIFICANTLY
ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS RAGGED.
SINCE THE CENTER IS NOT EXPOSED...THE INTENSITY WILL BE INCREASED
TO 40 KT TO BETTER FIT THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AFWA...
AND SAB.

THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY NORTHWARD TURN YET AS THE INITIAL MOTION
IS 270/11.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT INTO TWO MAJOR CLUSTERS.
THE FIRST...CALLING FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...INCLUDES
THE BAM MODELS...LBAR...AND CLIPER.  THE SECOND...CALLING FOR A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN...INCLUDES THE AVN...UKMET...NOGAPS...
GFDL...GUNS...AND GUNA.  THREE MODELS ARE OUT ON THEIR OWN.  THE
NHC91 CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...THE AVN
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS BETWEEN THE TWO MAJOR CLUSTERS...AND THE GFDN
TURNS THE STORM DUE NORTH.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES NEAR 25N120W...
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE STRONG FOR THE TIME
BEING.  HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA APPEARS TO BE
RE-DEVELOPING WESTWARD AND RIDGING IS TRYING TO FORM NEAR THE
MEXICAN MAINLAND COAST.  THESE DEVELOPMENTS MAY BE WHAT STARTS
THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN.  GIVEN THESE SIGNS...THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SUCH A TURN STARTING IN 12-24 HR.
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER CRISTINA IS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE...BUT THE CYCLONE IS NOT WELL-ORGANIZED ENOUGH AT THE
MOMENT TO RESPOND.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL LET CRISTINA ORGANIZE
AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH 48 HR.  IT THEN HITS COLDER WATER AND AN
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  SHOULD CRISTINA NOT MAKE THE
TURN...IT WOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATER THROUGH 72 HR BUT STILL
ENCOUNTER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  EITHER WAY...SOME WEAKENING
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 48 HR.

 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/2100Z 14.1N 116.4W    40 KTS
12HR VT     13/0600Z 14.3N 117.6W    50 KTS
24HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N 118.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     14/0600Z 16.2N 119.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     14/1800Z 17.6N 119.3W    65 KTS
72HR VT     15/1800Z 20.0N 121.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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