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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUL 11 2002
 
THE CIRCULATION FINALLY CONSOLIDATED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER.  THERE ARE ALSO A FEW BANDING FEATURES.
THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND IS EXPANDING WESTWARD CONSIDERABLY AS
THE SHEAR RELAXES.  T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH.  CONSEQUENTLY...FOUR-E IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM CRISTINA AT THIS TIME.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
WITHIN A FAIRLY LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND THE SYSTEM COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS IN 72 HOURS.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...WHICH
INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY...THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW 
ONLY A MODEST STRENGTHENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SMALL MID-LEVEL HIGH NORTHWEST OF 
CRISTINA. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE RESTRUCTURING OF THE 
SYSTEM RESULTED IN A WEST OR SOUTH OF DUE WEST TRACK DURING THE PAST 
FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGES ALSO SHOW A LARGE TROUGH 
ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARD CRISTINA. THIS PATTERN MAY FORCE THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  
THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE 
VERSUS CLIMATOLOGY WHICH KEEPS THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. SOME MODELS 
SHOW A MORE AGGRESSIVE TURN TO THE NORTH THAN OTHERS. THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL WHICH TURNS CRISTINA 
GRADUALLY. BEYOND 72 HOURS...AS CRISTINA WEAKENS...IT COULD TURN 
BACK TO THE WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 14.2N 113.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 14.2N 114.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 14.3N 115.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.5N 116.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N 117.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 118.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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