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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUL 10 2002
 
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
THE LIMITED CONVECTION.  THE CENTER HAS BEEN HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.  THIS LOCATION IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH TAFB AND
SAB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS WHICH IN FACT SUGGEST T-NUMBERS LOWER
THAN EARLIER TODAY.  SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS NOT WELL DEFINED WITH SOME CLOUD LINES MOVING AWAY
FROM THE SYSTEM.  IN ADDITION...SHIP MZFK4 REPORTED WEST WINDS OF
ONLY 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE BODY OF THE DEPRESSION.  NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  BECAUSE THE
DEPRESSION IS LOCATED OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO BEGIN IN
24 HOUR OR SO.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY WEAKEN BEYOND 72 HOURS AS
IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 
KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MODERATE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A GRADUAL 
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE RIDGE. THE STEERING FLOW 
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS 
ANTICIPATED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS 
AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0300Z 14.1N 109.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 14.3N 110.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 14.5N 112.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     12/1200Z 15.0N 114.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 116.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     14/0000Z 17.0N 118.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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