ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUL 10 2002
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
THE LIMITED CONVECTION. THE CENTER HAS BEEN HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. THIS LOCATION IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH TAFB AND
SAB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS WHICH IN FACT SUGGEST T-NUMBERS LOWER
THAN EARLIER TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS NOT WELL DEFINED WITH SOME CLOUD LINES MOVING AWAY
FROM THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...SHIP MZFK4 REPORTED WEST WINDS OF
ONLY 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE BODY OF THE DEPRESSION. NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BECAUSE THE
DEPRESSION IS LOCATED OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO BEGIN IN
24 HOUR OR SO. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY WEAKEN BEYOND 72 HOURS AS
IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MODERATE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE RIDGE. THE STEERING FLOW
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 14.1N 109.1W 30 KTS
12HR VT 11/1200Z 14.3N 110.8W 30 KTS
24HR VT 12/0000Z 14.5N 112.5W 40 KTS
36HR VT 12/1200Z 15.0N 114.0W 50 KTS
48HR VT 13/0000Z 16.0N 116.0W 60 KTS
72HR VT 14/0000Z 17.0N 118.0W 70 KTS
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