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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUL 10 2002
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE ALLEGED 
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM BOTH 
TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS VERY NEAR OR 
ALREADY AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY WAS 
HELD AT 30 KT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION 
BASED ON THE LARGE SCATTER IN THE FIX POSITIONS BY ALL THREE 
SATELLITE AGENCIES. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/13.  THE LAST 3 TRMM AND SSMI 
OVERPASSES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN TRACKING DUE WEST. 
THE CENTER LOCATION WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON THE 
MICROWAVE FIX POSITIONS RATHER THAN INDICATING AN ACTUAL TURN TO THE 
WEST-SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR 
APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. AS SUCH...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS 
FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH MORE RAPID STRENGTHENING AFTER THAT 
AS THE SHEAR DECREASES TO LESS THAN 10 KT.

NOTE: 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE ADDED BASED ON NEARBY SHIP REPORTS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/2100Z 13.0N 108.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/0600Z 13.2N 110.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     11/1800Z 13.4N 112.6W    40 KTS
36HR VT     12/0600Z 13.7N 114.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     12/1800Z 14.3N 116.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 118.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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