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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUL 09 2002
 
NOT MUCH CAN BE WRITTEN ABOUT THE DEPRESSION. IT CONSISTS OF A
SHAPELESS CLOUD MASS AND A LOW-LEVEL CENTER WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO
FIND. IN FACT...I AM NOT SURE IF THERE IS ONE AT THIS TIME. LATEST
AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS RUNNING
WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST
ESTIMATE USING CONTINUITY IS 280/14. A MODERATE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PROVIDE A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
STEERING THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
IS LIKELY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 25 KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A HOSTILE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT AND WITH SUCH
PATTERN...IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN
THE SHORT TERM.  HOWEVER...BEYOND 36 HOURS...IF THE DEPRESSION
SURVIVES...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKER SHEAR AND INTENSIFICATION
COULD THEN BEGIN.  BOTH...THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS STRENGTHEN THE
DEPRESSION SIGNIFICANTLY.  AT THIS TIME...I HAVE TO FOLLOW THE 
INTENSITY FORECAST INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IT MAY 
CHANGE IF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0300Z 12.5N 104.0W    25 KTS
12HR VT     10/1200Z 12.9N 106.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     11/0000Z 13.0N 108.3W    40 KTS
36HR VT     11/1200Z 13.5N 110.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     12/0000Z 14.5N 112.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 114.5W    85 KTS
 
 
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