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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUN 28 2002
 
GOES10 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION 
AND A SUGGESTION OF A QUASI INTERLOCKING BANDING PATTERN.  A 14Z 
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED NORTH/SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH RATHER 
THAN A CLOSED CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE 
DEPRESSION ADVISORIES AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM HAS THE APPEARANCE OF 
BEING WELL-ORGANIZED.  THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR SLIGHT 
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HOURS EVEN THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS 
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 37 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS AND HIGHER THEREAFTER.  
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT 
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL POSITION IS RELOCATED ABOUT 75 N MI SOUTH OF THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS POSITION IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AS THE 
QUIKSCAT SHOWS NO CLOSED CIRCULATION AND IS ROUGHLY NEAR THE CENTER 
OF THE INTERLOCKING PATTERN.  HOWEVER...LATEST VIS IMAGES SUGGEST 
THAT THE CENTER IS BECOMING SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION ONCE 
AGAIN. THE FORECAST TRACK IS DUE WEST FOR 72 HOURS UNDER A LOW/MID 
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 11.0N 129.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 11.0N 130.9W    35 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 11.0N 133.1W    30 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 11.0N 135.4W    30 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 11.0N 137.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     01/1800Z 11.0N 142.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW 
 
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