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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUN 28 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/12.  THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A 
MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO 
THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF 
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON A SIMILAR SHIFT TO THE INITIAL 
POSITION ESTIMATE.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE AND OUTFLOW 
ALOFT...BUT A 08Z TRMM PASS SHOWED A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD 
STRUCTURE CENTERED AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  SO 
THE WIND SPEED REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS.  THERE IS STILL 12 HOURS OR SO 
FOR THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM...BUT AFTER 
THAT...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO START THE 
DISSIPATION PROCESS.  THE SHPS MODEL...USING THE GFS MODEL... 
DIAGNOSES 31 KNOTS OF SHEAR AT 24 HOURS INCREASING TO 48 KNOTS OF 
SHEAR AT 72 HOURS. 

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 12.2N 127.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 12.3N 129.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 12.4N 132.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 12.4N 134.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     30/1200Z 12.5N 137.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     01/1200Z 12.5N 140.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
  
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