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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2002
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
DISORGANIZED.  HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME SEPARATED FROM A DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION.
T-NUMBERS ARE LOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY BUT STILL SUPPORT 30 KNOT
WINDS.  THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH
TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN ABOUT A DAY BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WEAKENING BEGIN.  THE DEPRESSION MAY BECOME A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FASTER THAN FORECAST.

THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 12 KNOTS. THERE 
IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK 
FOR A DAY OR TWO. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES SHALLOW...IT 
COULD MOVE MORE TO THE WEST...STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF 
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RAPIDLY WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING 
WESTWARD.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 12.5N 125.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 13.2N 127.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 14.0N 130.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 14.5N 132.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 14.5N 135.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     01/0000Z 14.5N 138.5W    25 KTS
 
 
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