HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUN 10 2002

...CORRECTED FORECASTER NAME...

THE SYSTEM HAS LOST PRACTICALLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION.  SINCE A 
QUIKSCAT PASS YESTERDAY EVENING SHOWED 35 KT WINDS AND IT IS ASSUMED 
THAT BORIS HAS WEAKENED SINCE THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS BEING 
DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION.  THUS THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE 
COAST IS CANCELED.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL MAINTAINS STRONG EASTERLY 
SHEAR OVER THE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...I.E. AN UNFAVORABLE 
ATMOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT FOR REGENERATION.  BORIS MAY EXHIBIT SOME 
OCCASIONAL FLAREUPS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT 
IT IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER IN THE FORECAST 
PERIOD.

STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES 
THAT THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE.  SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST... 
LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOVES BORIS VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 
SO...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD CRAWL.

 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/1500Z 17.3N 103.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/0000Z 17.5N 104.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     11/1200Z 17.7N 104.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     12/0000Z 17.8N 104.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     12/1200Z 18.0N 105.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     13/1200Z 18.0N 106.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN