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TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUN 10 2002

THE MOTION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  
MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION DURING THE 
NEXT 72 HOURS BUT SUGGEST LITTLE MOTION.  ONLY THE GFS MODEL SHOWS 
AN APPRECIABLE MOTION AND IT IS SLOW MOSTLY WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS FOR VERY SLOW MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION.

EXCEPT FOR A RECENT SMALL FLARE-UP NEAR THE CENTER...THERE IS VERY 
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT 
PASS SHOWED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION WITH A 35 KNOT MAXIMUM.  
DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE CONSTRAINED TO 45 KNOTS ALTHOUGH T-NUMBERS ARE 
ONLY 30 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS 40 KNOTS.  THE 
SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES THE GFS MODEL WITH 22 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR 
AND INCREASING TO 28 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS.  THIS IS THE BASIS FOR 
CONTINUING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AND BORIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL 
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IT IS 
INTERESTING THAT THE SHIPS MODEL KEEPS BORIS A STORM THROUGH 72 
HOURS AND LONGER BASED STRICTLY ON WARM SSTS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0900Z 17.3N 104.1W    40 KTS
12HR VT     10/1800Z 17.5N 104.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     11/0600Z 17.7N 104.3W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     11/1800Z 17.8N 104.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     12/0600Z 17.9N 104.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     13/0600Z 18.0N 105.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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