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ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUN 08 2002
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 AND 35 
KT...RESPECTIVELY.  DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO THIN OUT A BIT 
NOW...SO I WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT.  NEITHER THE INFLOW NOR 
THE OUTFLOW PATTERNS LOOK IDEAL AT THIS TIME...WITH THE DEPRESSION 
SEEMINGLY DRAWING MOST OF ITS INFLOW FROM THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  
THERE IS MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS NOT 
FORECAST TO ABATE APPRECIABLY.  DESPITE THIS...THE SHIPS INTENSITY 
MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO 54 KT IN 72 HOURS.  GIVEN THE 
PROXIMITY OF MORE STABLE AIR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE 
ANTICIPATED SHEAR...I AM NOT FORECASTING AS MUCH STRENGTHENING AS 
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/6.  THE AVN/GFS AND GFDL TRACK SOLUTIONS 
ARE SIMILAR...WITH LITTLE OVERALL MOTION DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. 
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MUTUAL ROTATION OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE 
TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST EAST OF THE CYCLONE IN THE 
MODEL...WHICH MAY BE OVERDONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS A MORE 
WESTWARD TRACK AND IS CLOSER TO THE BAMS THAN TO THE AVN OR GFDL. 

INCIDENTALLY...THE PRODUCT HEADER ON SPECIAL ADVISORY 1 WAS 
INCORRECTLY SET TO MIATCDEP1/WTPZ41 THIS MORNING.  ALL PRODUCT 
HEADERS HAVE BEEN CORRECTED FOR THIS...AND HOPEFULLY SUBSEQUENT... 
ADVISORIES.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/2100Z 16.6N 103.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N 104.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     09/1800Z 17.6N 104.8W    40 KTS
36HR VT     10/0600Z 18.3N 105.8W    45 KTS
48HR VT     10/1800Z 19.0N 106.8W    45 KTS
72HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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