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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1015 AM PDT SAT JUN 08 2002
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL 
DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND 
IT NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE 305/5.  THERE IS ONLY WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE 
DEPRESSION...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE 
CYCLONE ON A TRACK ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST.

CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING...BUT THE SYSTEM IS 
ALREADY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AS INDICATED BY QUIKSCAT 
DATA.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED 
FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS ONLY A SMALL 
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL 
STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST.  HEAVY RAINS...WITH POTENTIALLY 
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL REGIONS ARE 
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/1715Z 16.3N 102.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 16.7N 103.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 17.4N 104.1W    40 KTS
36HR VT     10/0000Z 18.0N 105.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     10/1200Z 18.7N 106.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N 107.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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