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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI MAY 31 2002
 
ALMA HAS WEAKENED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND IS DEVOID OF DEEP 
CONVECTION.  SINCE THE LAST QUIKSCAT PASS AT 13Z SHOWED MAXIMUM 
WINDS OF 40 KNOTS...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE WIND SPEED HAS DECREASED 
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE INTERVENING 11 HOURS.  ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
INDICATED CONTINUED WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE 
TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS IS THAT ALMA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN 
A WEAK STEERING CURRENT UNTIL ITS DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0300Z 17.7N 115.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     01/1200Z 17.7N 115.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     02/0000Z 17.7N 115.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     02/1200Z 17.7N 115.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     03/0000Z 17.7N 115.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     04/0000Z 17.7N 115.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
  
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