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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI MAY 31 2002
ALMA HAS WEAKENED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND IS DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION. SINCE THE LAST QUIKSCAT PASS AT 13Z SHOWED MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 40 KNOTS...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE WIND SPEED HAS DECREASED
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE INTERVENING 11 HOURS. ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INDICATED CONTINUED WEAKENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. THE CONSENSUS OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS IS THAT ALMA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN
A WEAK STEERING CURRENT UNTIL ITS DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 17.7N 115.8W 30 KTS
12HR VT 01/1200Z 17.7N 115.8W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 02/0000Z 17.7N 115.8W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/1200Z 17.7N 115.8W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/0000Z 17.7N 115.8W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/0000Z 17.7N 115.8W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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