HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI MAY 31 2002
 
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BECAME ESTABLISHED OVER ALMA AND 
REMOVED MOST OF THE CONVECTION WHICH INDEED IS VERY LIMITED AT THIS 
TIME. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EXPOSED AND DRIFTING WESTWARD.  
T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT HURRICANE INTENSITY BUT THEY ARE CONSTRAINED 
BY THE DVORAK RULES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS... 
A GENEROUS VALUE FOR SUCH A DEGRADED CLOUD PATTERN. BECAUSE THE 
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND THE OCEAN IS RELATIVELY COOL...ALMA 
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOST LIKELY WILL DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS 
OR SO. SOME INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 
DISSIPATION. 

THE LOW LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK SO LITTLE OR 
ERRATIC MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS ARE 
SUGGESTING MOTIONS TOWARD ALL QUADRANTS.  THIS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF 
THE PREVAILING WEAK STEERING FLOW.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/1500Z 18.3N 116.1W    60 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 18.7N 116.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N 116.5W    25 KTS
48HR VT     02/1200Z 19.5N 116.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
NNNN