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HURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2002
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/08. THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS ARE UNANIMOUS IN SLOWING THE FORWARD MOTION TO WELL UNDER 5
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS RESULTS FROM A WEAK STEERING
PATTERN SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE WITH A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW TO
ITS NORTHWEST AND A WEAK RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A
NORTHWARD MOTION AND THE OTHERS ARE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY LEANING TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE FOUR MODELS.
ALTHOUGH THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED OVERNIGHT AND
THERE APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF SYMMETRIC CONVECTION ON THE WEST
SIDE...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KNOTS FROM SAB AND TAFB.
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 95 KNOTS.
THE SHIPS MODEL DISSIPATES ALMA BY 72 HOURS PRIMARILY FROM COLDER
SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING BUT NOT AS
AGGRESSIVELY AS THE SHIPS MODEL.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 16.6N 115.1W 95 KTS
12HR VT 31/0000Z 17.6N 115.0W 90 KTS
24HR VT 31/1200Z 18.7N 114.6W 80 KTS
36HR VT 01/0000Z 19.0N 114.4W 65 KTS
48HR VT 01/1200Z 19.3N 114.0W 50 KTS
72HR VT 02/1200Z 19.6N 113.3W 35 KTS
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