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HURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/08.  THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS ARE UNANIMOUS IN SLOWING THE FORWARD MOTION TO WELL UNDER 5 
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THIS RESULTS FROM A WEAK STEERING 
PATTERN SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE WITH A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW TO 
ITS NORTHWEST AND A WEAK RIDGE TO ITS EAST.  THE GFS SHOWS A 
NORTHWARD MOTION AND THE OTHERS ARE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY LEANING TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE FOUR MODELS.
 
ALTHOUGH THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED OVERNIGHT AND 
THERE APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF SYMMETRIC CONVECTION ON THE WEST 
SIDE...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KNOTS FROM SAB AND TAFB.  
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 95 KNOTS.  
THE SHIPS MODEL DISSIPATES ALMA BY 72 HOURS PRIMARILY FROM COLDER 
SSTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING BUT NOT AS 
AGGRESSIVELY AS THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/1500Z 16.6N 115.1W    95 KTS
12HR VT     31/0000Z 17.6N 115.0W    90 KTS
24HR VT     31/1200Z 18.7N 114.6W    80 KTS
36HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N 114.4W    65 KTS
48HR VT     01/1200Z 19.3N 114.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     02/1200Z 19.6N 113.3W    35 KTS
  
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