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HURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2002
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ALMA TODAY.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN AT 77 KT.  MOST RECENT
OBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS HAVE COME UP A LITTLE AND ARE NOW T4.7.
BASED ON THIS INCREASE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 80
KT.  THE CORE CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE EYE FROM TIME TO
TIME BUT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY STRONGEST IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
THERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION...WHICH IS INGESTING A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/7.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WEST OF BAJA CONTINUES IS NO LONGER DIGGING
SOUTHWARD.  MODEL GUIDANCE...WHILE STILL DIVERSE...HAS CONVERGED
SOMEWHAT AND SUPPORTS A COLLAPSE OF THE STEERING FLOW IN ABOUT 36
HOURS AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS OUT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS A
BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
NONE OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING.  AS ALMA APPROACHES THE CUTOFF LOW...THERE WILL BE A
MODEST INCREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IN ADDITION...
SSTS UNDER THE CYCLONE ARE ALREADY DECREASING.  THEREFORE...A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 14.2N 115.5W    80 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 15.2N 115.9W    75 KTS
24HR VT     30/1800Z 16.6N 115.9W    65 KTS
36HR VT     31/0600Z 17.6N 115.7W    60 KTS
48HR VT     31/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     01/1800Z 19.0N 115.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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