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HURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2002
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN AT 77 KT...AND
SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.  THE EYE CONTINUES TO COME
AND GO IN THE IR IMAGERY...BUT IS CURRENTLY NICELY DEFINED.  THE
CORE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT...AND THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO
BECOME RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE 
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WEST OF BAJA CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD.  THIS IS 
EXPECTED TO TURN ALMA TO A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 
SO.  THE NCEP/GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE CUTOFF WILL BEGIN TO LIFT 
OUT WITHIN 24 HOURS...LEAVING ALMA BEHIND.  THE UKMET...WHICH HAS 
HAD A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD BIAS WITH THIS CYCLONE...IS SLOWER TO 
PULL THE CUTOFF OUT AND CONSEQUENTLY TAKES ALMA SHARPLY TO THE EAST. 
THE GFDL LIES IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
IS CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST.  

NONE OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY ADDITIONAL 
STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE BETTER DEFINITION IN THE EYE 
APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY STILL 
BE SOME SHORT-TERM OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION.  AS THE CUTOFF 
LOW AND ALMA APPROACH...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR.  IN 
ADDITION...SSTS UNDER THE CYCLONE ARE ALREADY DECREASING.  
THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE WITHIN 
24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1500Z 13.7N 115.3W    75 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 14.7N 115.8W    85 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.0N 116.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     31/0000Z 17.0N 115.8W    70 KTS
48HR VT     31/1200Z 18.0N 115.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     01/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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