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TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE MAY 28 2002
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 65 AND 55 
KT...RESPECTIVELY.  OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO IR IMAGERY IS 
SUGGESTING THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION NEAR 
THE CENTER IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND THERE IS LITTLE BANDING.  THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/10...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW 
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE WESTWARD 
STEERING CURRENT FOR ALMA.  HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AS TO 
HOW RAPIDLY THIS WILL OCCUR.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN SPLIT...WITH 
THE GFS AND ITS BAM DERIVATIVES ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH A 
GENTLE RECURVATURE BEGINNING IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND THE REST OF THE 
GUIDANCE SHOWING AN EARLIER AND SHARPER TURN.  INTERESTINGLY...THE 
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS IN THE LATTER CAMP.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
FAVORS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GFDL SOLUTIONS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE WATER IS WARM AND SHEAR IS MODEST.  THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE IS 
NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT HAS BEEN...AND IN FACT 
NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING.  
STILL...THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR GROWTH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 
36 HOURS BEFORE SHEAR INCREASES AND WATER TEMPERATURES DECREASE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 12.2N 112.7W    60 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 12.7N 113.8W    65 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 13.6N 114.9W    75 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 14.7N 115.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     30/1200Z 16.0N 115.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     31/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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