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TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN MAY 26 2002
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE POORLY DEFINED  
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ALMA LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTION. 
HOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. 
THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX...SO ONCE AGAIN...THE 
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH 
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. 

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS AROUND A 
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE 
THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY FORCING THE 
STORM TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A NEW TROUGH 
IN THE WESTERLIES APPROACHES THE CYCLONE. THIS WOULD PROBABLY FAVOR 
A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. IN FACT...THE LATEST NCEP GFS MODEL 
SWITCHED TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS. THIS IS NOW MORE 
CONSISTENT WITH OTHER MODELS WHICH PROVIDED THE NORTHWARD TURN 
OPTION IN EARLIER RUNS. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 10.9N 105.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 11.0N 106.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 11.5N 108.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     28/0600Z 11.5N 109.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     28/1800Z 11.5N 110.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     29/1800Z 12.0N 112.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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