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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER 
HAS DECREASED BUT CURVED BANDS ARE TRYING TO FORM. THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED AND SOME CLOUD LINES ARE 
MOVING AWAY FROM THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN 
BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND THE OCEAN IS WARM.

THE NCEP GFS...THE OUTLIER EARLIER TODAY...WAS CORRECT IN 
FORECASTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST 
AND INDEED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 240/7.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 
IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A 500 MB RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST 
TO AMPLIFY AND EXTEND WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE 
ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WITH A 
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO 
THE GFS (OLD AVN) MODEL. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 10.7N 103.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 10.0N 104.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 10.0N 105.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 10.0N 107.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 10.5N 109.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 11.5N 112.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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