HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2002

THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY DEFINED ON 
NIGHTTIME INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/03.  THE LATEST NCEP GFS (GLOBAL 
FORECAST SYSTEM) MODEL KEEPS A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH 
OF THE DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS AND FORECASTS A SLOW 
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE UKMET...GFLD  AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOW 
A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A 
SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH 
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...THIS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY 
NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN BELOW 
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS GRADUAL 
INTENSIFICATION TO 74 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS UNDER LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR 
AND OVER WARM SSTS AND THE GFDL MODEL ALSO FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT 
STRENGTHENING.  IN CONTRAST...THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS FORECAST NO  
CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A 
BLEND...BRINGING THE WIND SPEED TO 65 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 11.4N 101.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 11.4N 102.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 11.4N 103.7W    40 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 11.5N 105.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 12.0N 106.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 12.5N 108.0W    60 KTS
 
 
NNNN