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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2002
 
THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS ELONGATED ALONG A SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST LINE.  THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE...AND IN FACT MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY WELL DEFINED YET.
GIVEN THE SYSTEMS POOR DEFINITION AND SHORT HISTORY...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/5.  THE APPARENT
MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE ERRATIC UNTIL A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER DEVELOPS.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A NARROW
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MEXICAN COAST WESTWARD AND
THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...SEPARATING THE CYCLONE
FROM THE HIGH-SHEAR WESTERLIES.  THIS CONFIGURATION SHOULD KEEP THE
FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE SPREAD OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
RELATIVELY LARGE...WITH THE NCEP GFS...GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...
FORMERLY KNOWN AS THE AVN...KEEPING THE SYSTEM ENTANGLED WITH THE
ITCZ THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE UKMET HAS A MORE NORTHERLY
AND SLOWER TRACK...AND THE GFDL LIES IN BETWEEN.  ALL OF THESE
MODELS INDICATE RELATIVELY LITTLE MOTION AT AND BEYOND THREE DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD IN DEFERENCE TO THE AVN...
OOPS...GFS...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM SO FAR.

THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.  THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT 
LESSEN AS QUICKLY AS THE PREVIOUS RUN DID...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL 
HAVE COMPETITION WITH THE ITCZ IF IT IN FACT TAKES THE MORE 
SOUTHERLY TRACK FAVORED BY THE GFS.  THE GFS CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE 
IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS 
MODEL LIKES THE DEPRESSION A LOT...BRINGING IT TO 82 KT IN 72 HOURS. 
IN PART THIS IS DUE TO AN ASSUMED TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WHERE 
THE SHEAR IS LOWER...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE 30C BATH WATER UNDER THE 
CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS SHIPS....BUT 
IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST THEN THE SHIPS 
FORECAST MIGHT NOT BE FAR OFF THE MARK.  
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 11.6N 102.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 11.6N 102.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 11.6N 103.7W    40 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 11.9N 104.7W    45 KTS
48HR VT     27/0000Z 12.4N 105.8W    55 KTS
72HR VT     28/0000Z 13.0N 107.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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