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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2002
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS 
AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TD 14 HAS SHEARED OUT AND 
DISSIPATED...REFORMED TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA...AND THEN HAS MOVED BACK 
INLAND OVER CENTRAL CUBA AS AN ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH 
OF CIENFUEGOS. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS CAUSED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO 
DISSIPATE NEAR THE CENTER...AND THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS 
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING...AND FORECAST 
POSITIONS AND INTENSITIES ARE PROVIDED ONLY FOR PLANNING PURPOSES 
UNTIL THE SYSTEM CLEARS THE BAHAMAS. THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO 
MERGE WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM ANDROS ISLAND 
SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD CATCH 
UP WITH THE CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT AND COMPLETE THE TRANSITION OVER 
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...ASSUMING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION STILL 
EXISTS AT THAT TIME. THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION OF THE 
FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL 
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. I DID NOT CHANGE THE  
FORECAST TRACK POSITIONS SINCE THE NEW 12Z GFS MODEL FORECAST 
POSITIONS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THOSE ON THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
THERE MAY BE SOME INTERMITTMENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION LATER 
TONIGHT WHEN THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TD 14 MERGES WITH THE 
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS 
EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. BUT AFTER 24 HOURS 
WHEN THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM CLEARS THE BAHAMAS...SOME SIGNIFICANT 
BAROCLINIC STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. THE NEW 12Z GFS MODEL RUN IS 
MORE ROBUST WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IT HAS BEEN 
ON THE PREVIOUS RUNS...AND IT IS SIMILAR TO THE NEW 12Z NOGAPS RUN 
IN MAKING THE CYCLONE A NEAR-GALE CENTER BY 36 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 22.4N  80.3W    25 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT     17/0600Z 24.0N  78.5W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     17/1800Z 26.5N  76.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     18/0600Z 30.0N  72.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     18/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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