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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2002
 
RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA
INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS ACCELERATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS
NOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL CUBA TO THE NORTH OF CIENFUEGOS.  SINCE
06Z...SHIP OBSERVATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAVE REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 36 KT.  EVEN THOUGH
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS RISING...THERE MAY STILL BE SOME WINDS NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OFFSHORE THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA IN THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
BE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND STORM SURGE FLOODING
IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA THIS MORNING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15.  THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE THE DEPRESSION TO THE NORTHEAST AND
KEEP THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SAY WHETHER THE CYCLONE WILL BE TROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL AFTER IT
EMERGES OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE OTHER NHC MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON KEEPING SOME TYPE OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
SHOULD MERGE WITH THE DEPRESSION IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...IF NOT 
SOONER...WHEN THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A SHADE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
MODEL AND IS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING FASTER TO THE 
NORTHEAST...THE ADDITIONAL TRANSLATIONAL SPEED MAY HELP TO BUMP THE 
WIND SPEEDS UP TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN THE CYCLONE IS 
MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 06Z GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE JETSTREAM ENERGY AND STRONG 
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH 
THROUGH 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM TURNING INTO AN 
EXTRATROPICAL BOMB AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...DESPITE ITS 
EXPECTED MERGER WITH THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...AT AND BEYOND 36 
HOURS...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH 
THE SYSTEM AND THERE COULD BE SOME SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC DEEPENING 
AT THAT TIME.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 22.3N  80.2W    30 KTS...INLAND OVER CUBA
12HR VT     17/0000Z 23.9N  78.6W    30 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     17/1200Z 26.5N  76.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     18/0000Z 30.0N  72.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     18/1200Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE
 
 
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