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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2002
THE CENTER IS EXCEEDINGLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON NIGHTTIME
IMAGERY...AND THE PLANNED RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAD MECHANICAL
PROBLEMS...SO THE INITIAL LOCATION IS UNCLEAR. SATELLITE POSITION
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ABOUT 60 MILES APART. NEAR AS I CAN
TELL...THE DEPRESSION IS BASICALLY ON TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
OF 040/11. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEEDS VARY
CONSIDERABLY...WITH THE GFS BEING ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS FROM THE LAST MISSION AROUND 00Z SHOWED THAT
THERE WAS VERY LITTLE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OF THE DEPRESSION...MEANING THAT THE CIRCULATION IS CLOSE TO OPENING
UP INTO A TROUGH. UNLESS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED
SOON...THE CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE AS THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. WITH THE SYSTEM RUNNING OUT OF TIME
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE DEPRESSION MAY NEVER
GET TO MAKE ITS MARKO AS A TROPICAL STORM. TO BE ON THE SAFE
SIDE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST STILL SHOWS THE SYSTEM
REACHING 35 KT IN THE BAHAMAS...BUT I SUSPECT THAT THE DEPRESSION
WILL BE EITHER DISSIPATED OR EXTRATROPICAL BY THEN. REGARDLESS OF
THE SYSTEM STATUS...THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL BE THAT OF A
BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM IN TERMS OF THE RAIN AND WIND HAZARDS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0900Z 21.0N 81.2W 30 KTS
12HR VT 16/1800Z 22.5N 79.8W 30 KTS
24HR VT 17/0600Z 24.7N 77.0W 35 KTS
36HR VT 17/1800Z 27.5N 74.5W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 18/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE
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