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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ON IR IMAGES IS DISRUPTED AND MOST OF THE 
CONVECTIVE BANDS...WHICH INDEED ARE PRETTY LINEAR...ARE TO THE EAST 
OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...LATEST DATA FROM A RECON AND A QUIKSCAT 
PASS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WERE 35 KNOTS AND LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST. 
INITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES AT 30 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS 
INCREASING AND A COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE AREA...THE 
POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM ATTAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE IT 
REACHES CUBA IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CURRENT WELL 
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY 
FORECAST...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 
THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE 
COLD FRONT AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A 
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO 
CROSS CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  IT APPEARS 
THAT...LUCKILY FOR CUBA...THIS IS GOING TO BE PRIMARILY A RAIN 
EPISODE WITH GUSTY WINDS.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA/MOLLEDA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 20.2N  81.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 21.6N  80.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     17/0000Z 23.5N  78.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     17/1200Z 26.0N  75.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     18/0000Z 29.0N  72.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     19/0000Z 37.0N  65.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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