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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002
 
IN THE PAST 2 HOURS DURING THE LATEST RECON INVESTIGATION...THE 
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST CLOSER 
TO A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND 
REPORTED SO FAR HAS BEEN 37 KT AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS DOWN TO 
1002 MB. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT. 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE EAST...BUT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST 
DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
 
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE DUE 
TO THE RECENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...BUT A COMPROMISE OVER THE 
PAST 12 HOURS GIVES ABOUT 030/09. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY. THE LOW-LEVEL 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY 
NORTHWARD AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF 
MEXICO HAS BEGUN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT MOVING 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS BEGINNING TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF 
THE RIDGE AND THIS MAY BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT 
NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION. MEANWHILE...A MAJOR TROUGH OVER 
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD...AND THAT 
IS THE TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PICK UP THE DEPRESSION IN 24 TO 
36 HOURS AND ACCELERATE IT RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. I DID NOT WANT 
TO CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE 
DEPRESSION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED WITH RESPECT TO THE RECENT 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL 
RUNS...AND STILL AGREES ON TAKING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS 
CENTRAL CUBA IN 24 HOURS AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY 36 
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF 
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN BACK ON TRACK AFTER 
THAT. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...GFDL... 
AND GFDN MODELS.
 
TD 14 HAS THE PRESSURE OF A TROPICAL STORM...BUT THE LACK OF ANY 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS PREVENTED 
THE WINDS FROM INCREASING MUCH. HOWEVER...THIS TREND MAY BE 
REVERSING IF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE NEW CENTER 
CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO. AS SUCH...SLOW BUT STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION IS STILL FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE 
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL 
RESULT IN RAPID TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IT IS POSSIBLE 
THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL 
LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA BY 48 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 19.1N  82.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 20.4N  80.9W    35 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N  78.7W    40 KTS
36HR VT     17/0600Z 25.5N  76.0W    45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     17/1800Z 29.5N  72.3W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     18/1800Z 40.0N  63.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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