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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2002
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAS UNDERGONE SOME SHEARING TODAY WITH
A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING FULLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE AFTERNOON RECON FLIGHT HAS BEEN DELAYED
DUE TO MECHANICAL PROBLEMS AND LOCAL ADVERSE WEATHER.  THE NEXT
FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE AROUND 15/00Z.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THIS HIGHER INTENSITY IS CORROBORATED BY
A 25 KT WIND AND 1009.0 MB PRESSURE REPORTED BY SHIP KMCB AT 18Z 
ABOUT 60 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER THAT WAS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/03...BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT
THE THE DEPRESSION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD SHORTLY.  THE
CYCLONE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD...BUT THIS IS LIKELY
JUST A SHORT TERM MOTION.  WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW LAYER.  THIS HAS
RESULTED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE 12Z AVN/GFS AND GFDL RUNS HAVE NOW
COME IN ALMOST ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.
GIVEN THE RECENT SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT LEFT-OF-TRACK ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  BUT UNTIL
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FINALLY CONSOLIDATES NEAR SOME
SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO JUST
HOLD STEADY WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION AND THE
LATEST NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND UKMET MODELS ARE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS AND CURRENT GFDL AND AVN/GFS MODEL RUNS.  THE GULFSTREAM-IV
AIRCRAFT WILL BE MAKING A SYNOPTIC FLIGHT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING AND THAT DATA SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER INDICATION OF THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND ALSO THE NARROW 700 MB RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAT SEEMS TO BE BLOCKING ANY
NORTHWARD MOTION AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 20 TO 30 KT 
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THE 
STORM-RELATIVE SHEAR WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE ONCE THE DEPRESSION 
BEGINS TO MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE 
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES CUBA. ONCE OVER THE 
FLORIDA STRAITS...THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE UNDER MUCH STRONGER 
SHEAR...BUT BAROCLINIC EFFECTS AND JETSTREAM DYNAMICS MAY ALLOW FOR 
SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE 
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY 
MODEL. THE GFDL MODEL HAS CONTINUED ITS FORECAST OF A MAJOR 
HURRICANE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR THE PAST 4 MODELS RUNS...BUT 
THIS IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN 
FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS BY 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 17.2N  83.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 19.1N  83.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 21.6N  82.4W    45 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 23.9N  80.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 27.6N  76.3W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     17/1800Z 37.0N  68.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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