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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2002
 
LILI IS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA JUST SOUTH OF MONROE. THE 
CYCLONE WAS KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS BASED ON 50 KT 
DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES AT 5000 FT...OR 850 MB...WHICH EQUATES TO 
ABOUT 40 KT AT THE SURFACE. 
 
LILI HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED OF 14 
KNOTS AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS LOCATED FROM 
CENTRAL GEORGIA WESTWARD TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...RADAR 
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO SUGGESTS THAT LILI IS BEGINNING TO 
ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IN 12 HOURS OR SO WITH 
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WAS MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST 
PACKAGE. LILI IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS OR SO 
AS IT MERGES WITH A LARGER MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO 
VALLEY.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0300Z 32.4N  92.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     04/1200Z 35.9N  89.8W    30 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING
24HR VT     05/0000Z 39.7N  84.1W    25 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     05/1200Z 43.5N  75.7W    25 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL

 
 
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