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HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 02 2002

AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOWED A FAIRLY RAPID CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALL...TO ABOUT 954 MB JUST BEFORE 0600Z...BUT A LATER DROPSONDE
FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT OF 955 MB SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAD LEVELLED.  THIS IS PROBABLY TEMPORARY...AND SOME SHORT-TERM
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DUE TO INTERNAL PROCESSES SUCH
AS EYEWALLL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.  HOWEVER METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LILI IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE LATER TODAY.  THE BIG
QUESTION IS...JUST HOW STRONG LILI WILL BE WHEN IT REACHES THE
COAST?  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN
GULF WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY BE ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION.  THE
UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AS
IT IS WHERE LILI IS PRESENTLY LOCATED...BUT THE RELATIVELY FAST
MOTION OF LILI COULD MINIMIZE THE IMPACT OF THE LESS FAVORABLE
WATERS.  HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND THERE
IS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE AREA.  GIVEN THE CURRENT
STATE OF THE SCIENCE OF INTENSITY FORECASTING...WE ARE FORECASTING
THE HURRICANE TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND.

THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND LILIS MOTION 
IS NOW ABOUT 300/14.  THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE GUIDED BY THE 
STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER 
ANTICYCLONE.  IN A DAY OR TWO...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING 
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 
ANTICYLONE SOMEWHAT.  THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE A GRADUAL TURN OF 
LILI TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL...LILI SHOULD 
ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  THIS OFFICIAL 
TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN EXCELLENT 
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. 
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0900Z 24.0N  87.9W    95 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 25.2N  89.7W   100 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 27.0N  91.5W   105 KTS
36HR VT     03/1800Z 29.2N  92.5W   105 KTS
48HR VT     04/0600Z 31.5N  92.0W    50 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     05/0600Z 38.5N  85.5W    20 KTS...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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