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HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002
 
LILI CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE DATA. LILI APPEARS TO HAVE JUST 
COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE BASED ON THE LAST 2 RECON 
PASSES THROUGH THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE EYE 
HAS CLEARED OUT AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH THE EYE TEMPERATURE 
INCREASING FROM -55C TO -9C JUST DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS. THE 
PREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 90 KT IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON 
DROPSONDE WINDS OF 101 KT OVER A DEEP LAYER BETWEEN 963 MB AND 850 
MB...COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...AND DVORAK 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KT...OR T5.5...FROM TAFB AND 
AFWA. WIND RADII WERE ALSO INCREASED BASED ON 00Z SURFACE REPORTS 
AND METICULOUS ANALYSES FROM THE AOML/HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/13. THE LAST 4 RECON FIXES INDICATE 
LILI HAS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 
TRACK. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO MADE A SIMILAR SHIFT 
TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND 
THEN SHIFTS TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS. THIS 
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK JUST SIMPLY ROUNDS OUT 
THE TURN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER 36 HOURS. 
THIS SCENARIO IS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE APPROACHING DEEP MID- TO 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE 
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC MODEL 
GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY PACKED AND STRONGLY AGREE ON A 
LANDFALL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 42 
HOURS. OF COURSE... JUST A SLIGHT WOBBLE TO THE WEST WOULD BRING THE 
CENTER OF LILI CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON-GALVESTON AREA...AND A WOBBLE 
TO THE EAST WOULD TAKE THE POWERFUL HURRICANE CLOSER TO THE NEW 
ORLEANS AREA.

THE OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND IMPROVE...WHILE THE 
INNER CORE CONVECTION AND THE EYE CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. 
LILI ALREADY HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A MAJOR HURRICANE AND NOW THAT 
THE EYEWALL HAS DECREASED FROM 35 NMI DOWN TO 17 NMI... SOME 
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN SHORTLY AND CONTINUE FOR 
ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE AND EVEN PROBABLE THAT LILI 
COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT AROUND 110 KT BETWEEN THE 12 AND 
24 HOURS TIME PERIODS...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT. THIS 
INTENSITY SCENARIO WILL BE CLOSELY ASSESSED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. 
UNFORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE LILI WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT 
MAKES LANDFALL.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0300Z 23.3N  86.3W    90 KTS
12HR VT     02/1200Z 24.4N  88.3W   100 KTS
24HR VT     03/0000Z 26.1N  90.7W   105 KTS
36HR VT     03/1200Z 28.0N  92.2W   105 KTS
48HR VT     04/0000Z 30.5N  92.7W    70 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     05/0000Z 37.0N  88.5W    25 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
 
 
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